Hello fellow Arena player,
We have updated the Lightforge Arena Tier List with all the new interesting Scholomance Academy cards. Together with fellow top "Modes" player /u/merps4248 and our techinical director /u/zdman2001, we have kept this tier list updated with highly accurate predictions through every meta change for the past 5+ years, gradually refining the rather complex underlying algorithm that determines these values.
For the past 2.5 years, we've hit predictive 99%+ accuracy by Arena offering rates on our initial predictions. . . until Demon Hunters and Ashes of Outlands. While not terrible overall, my personal estimate that we nailed ~85% of cards by offering rate is the lowest predictive accuracy rate I can remember for a new set. This is because Blizzard has been pushing Hearthstone fundamentals to the outer edges and things we took for granted and made assumptions about are now broken in the meta. We made a major update in June to our system for determining proper "waiting" decisions and impacts, another major update today tweaking curve, reach and hard removals, and we expect to do another major update in the next couple of weeks relating to a deeper understanding of how tempo interacts with max mana and the "swing" of the game. Here's to hoping we've adjusted and can hit a predictive ~95% accuracy for this rather complicated set.
You can find a robust discussion on every single card in Scholomance Academy on our 9-hour Youtube Video Preview Series, and in depth explanation of how the algorithm functions in our podcast episode from last month featuring our technical director ZDman here.
Top Scholomance Academy Neutrals:
Smug Senior - 136 | common. 6 mana 5/7. Taunt. Deathrattle: Add a 5/7 Ghost with Taunt to your hand. | This is an pretty neatly flavored card for Scholomance Academy's neutral set in the Arena. Sure, he may be the top dog in his set, but a 136 is really nothing to brag about these days. A good representation of the "strong, but unspectacular" neutral set Scholomance Academy brings to the table, Smug Senior is a sharp departure from the ridiculously overpowered neutral cards of the year of dragon sets, and more in line with Ashes of Outland's Frozen Shadowweaver (137). Top dog commons in prior sets were rated on pre-release: Twin Tyrant (165), Wrapped Golem (153). In fact, 136 is the lowest rated top dog neutral since Witchwood's Phantom Militia (124). As far as what the card actually does, it's probably the most refreshingly boring top card ever. It is a normally statted (which is refreshingly underpowered in this meta) somewhat big taunt, that adds another identical normally statted somewhat big taunt to your hand. 14 health is a lot of taunt, and with Crimson Hothead's (129) 6 potential taunt health also being in the ballpark, there's going to be a decent amount of taunts in this meta. The main purpose this card serves in the Arena meta is to bog down every game. At 12 mana, having 14 taunt health, and being a neutral common sure to be in every deck, this card itself probably lengthens games by 1 turn. And it does this by doing nothing special in particular. With all the power creep and ridiculous swings in the Arena these days, it's nice to see the most powerful common neutral of the set be so damn "normal". This is how top neutral cards in the Arena SHOULD be designed.
Voracious Reader - 135 | rare. 2 mana 1/3. At the end of your turn, draw until you have 3 cards. | Apparently, Blizzard thinks reading is only good when your mind is empty. But damn is it REALLY good when it hits. 2 mana to draw 3 cards, then maybe draw more the turn(s) after that is insane. This card will be better the faster your deck is, significantly so, because you have a much higher chance of actually being able to use its ability. For example, in the average Demon Hunter deck, this card is rated a 168. In the on average slower Druid deck, it is only rated a 122. However, what holds it back from being truly premium in mid range decks is how stuffed to the brim this set is with card draw and generation. This may be the first meta in which while playing optimally, you're unlikely to run out of cards before the end of the game. It's a premium card anyway, but keep in mind that in faster decks and faster metas (say, if DH is dominating the meta), this card becomes super super premium. If Smug Senior is an example of a good fundamentals Arena card, Voracious Reader is an example of a card that should be legendary or at least epic in neutral. This likely won't be the meta where it becomes super problematic (but with Blizz's opaque offering odds adjustments, who knows what the meta will be like), but it'll still swing plenty of games based on near-zero skill and exists in the card pool now as a ticking time bomb if the meta ever speeds up again.
Honorable mentions (120-130 rated commons): Crimson Hothead, Fishy Flyer, Onyx Magescribe, Animated Broomstick, Plagued Protodrake, Tour Guide.
Top class cards (170+ rated commons and rares): Blessing of Authority (Pa), Goody Two-Shields (Pa), Firebrand (Mg), Combustion (Mg), Brittlebone Destroyer (Pr/Wl), Reaper's Scythe (Wr), Cycle of Hatred (DH), Marrowslicer (DH), Secret Passage (Rg).
Full changelog here.
That's it from us at the Lightforge Tier List. Thank you to everyone's who's supported us over the years and everyone whose hard work went into this Tier List and associated Arena content. We'll be streaming all week to really dig into this new standard rotation in the Arena.
See you in the Arena!
ADWCTA (Grinning Goat)
