The group stages of the Fall Global championship have concluded and left us with a trove of data about the current meta regarding Warrior play. While there were a couple interesting additions and exclusions, the basic theme remains the same as it has for the past year-and-a-half: Muradin and E.T.C. are still the kings.
| Hero | Picked | Won | Banned |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arthas | 2 | 1 | |
| Chen | 13 | 7 | 5 |
| Dehaka | 5 | 2 | |
| ETC | 24 | 13 | 8 |
| Johanna | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| Leoric | 3 | 1 | |
| Muradin | 30 | 17 | 1 |
| Sonya | 3 | 1 | |
| Tyrael | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Zarya | 5 | 3 | 10 |
(Not selected: Anub'arak, Artanis, Diablo, Rexxar, Stitches (and Cho, technically.))
So, out of 34 total games, E.T.C. was involved in 32 of them and Muradin in 31. That's mildly ridiculous. In recent patches, both Muradin and E.T.C. have received adjustments to bring them more into line with what the development team wants to see. In the case of E.T.C., it was to emphasize his role as a Support-style Warrior. In the case of Muradin, it was to create greater talent diversity. However, in both cases, the changes were effectively buffs to heroes that didn't really need them and that's despite the devs' assertion that they wanted to buff Muradin in all ranges of competition except the pro scene, since his win rate below that level had been lagging.
What this ends up displaying is the difference between a high skill floor hero, like the recent change to Valla, and heroes that still do too much, too well, when placed into skilled hands. Valla's Hero League win rate cratered after the changes and, while she has seen much more involvement in pro play, she remains a relatively uncommon pick in Hero League because of the time and skill required to maximize her effectiveness. On the other hand, both E.T.C. and Muradin remain the top tanks, frequently being first- or second-picked, without question because they do everything required of a frontliner (peel, CC, sustain, engage, escape) right out of the box. Together they had 63 selections (picks or bans.) The other 8 Warriors selected had a combined total of 66.
The only other hero to even approach that level of involvement was Chen. His overhaul was intended to do exactly that: make it so that he could solo tank. However, in all 13 games that Chen had in the first two rounds, he was played solo only once, by Reborn vs. Denial. Every other time, he was matched up with another Warrior, almost always E.T.C. or Muradin, but twice with Tyrael and once with Leoric.
Might makes right!
Double Warrior comps were picked 36 times out of 66 drafts and won 19 of those games. That includes 2 comps with a bruiser (read: Sonya) and one triple Warrior comp by Reborn (Muradin, Sonya, Zarya) that, unfortunately, failed to find victory. Speaking of Zarya, the fact that she was the only Warrior to receive double digit bans speaks to the still relative unfamiliarity that many teams have with her... or does it? Zarya was banned exclusively by Eastern teams (ZeroPanda, eStar, Ballistix, MVP Black, and Please Buff Arthas) and played exclusively by Western teams (Denial, Fnatic, Burning Rage; all in the earlier rounds of the group.) Was that an acknowledgment of their lack of familiarity or the power of the hero?
Furthermore, Zarya was frequently the target of the dual Warrior bans that became more frequent as the tournament moved along, with MVP, Zero, and Ballistix all banning two frontliners in the later games, where Zero and Ballistix both banned Zarya/Tyrael (Ballistix did it twice.) Denial would follow suit (E.T.C./Chen in their final game against Ballistix and then the latter would do so in both of their games against Fnatic (Zarya/Tyrael and E.T.C./Tyrael.)
"This is not even my final form."
One real bright spot of change was the emergence of Dehaka. Despite only being picked in 5 games and only winning two of them, he was shown as far more of a Specialist than a frontlining Warrior, since he was used mostly for waveclear (like Johanna) and spot ganks (like Diablo.) Wubby's play with him in the Greatest Game Ever Played (to date) was spectacular in both of those respects. Similarly, the continued presence of Tyrael as a game changing character is encouraging to see. He has the best win rate of the tournament so far and always tends to figure prominently in the "big play" category because of default talent picks like Holy Ground.
Where are you guys?!
The last note of interest is the continued lack of play of over 1/3 of the available Warriors. While it's no surprise to not see Rexxar (despite his recent popularity on Braxis Holdout) and Artanis (Blizzard has suggested that a buff for him may be forthcoming), the absence of Diablo, Stitches, and especially Anub'arak is somewhere between headscratching and concerning. While Diablo and Stitches may simply have rotated out of the meta for the time being, Anub'arak had great involvement a few months back which Blizzard decided was too much. Subsequent nerfs meant that he has once again disappeared from the pro game, despite the continued presence of his primary targets (Li Ming, etc.)
Tomorrow: the damage dealers (Fall championship Assassin play and compositions)
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