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Dota 210 years ago

Final day preview: Embrace thy fate

With little over 4 hours remaining for the third day of The International 2014 groupstage to begin, we now move on to the final phase where another three rounds of matches await us. The fate of certain teams will be known with the conclusion of the final phase.

Phase Two - Day Three of The International Dota 2 Championships 2014 ended on a chaotic note with teams being constantly shuffled up and down the leadership board. However, it was Vici Gaming and Evil Geniuses who emerged as the shining stars by occupying the top two spots. Both these teams have earned themselves a top eight finish with a guranteed minimum prize money of $500,000.

The other four teams guranteed to move on to the next round are none other than the Chinese giants DK and Invictus Gaming, Cloud9 and the wildcard winner Team Liquid, who took everyone by surprise since the playins phase. These four teams have guranteed themselves a top ten finish. However, Cloud9 and Liquid can break into the top 4 provided iG and DK lose their remaining games.

The remaining 12 games to be played out today will be essential for all teams except Arrow Gaming, who have punched their tickets out of the competition as they have only two wins and eleven losses registered to their names. Their remaining games will hold no value and thus they can look forward to put forth a splendid show and bow out with pride.

Na'Vi, NewBee and Titan are hanging on by a thin thread and will look forward to hold their fort for 7th-10th spot. They can break into the top 6 provided they win the remainder of their games whilst Cloud9 and/or Liquid don't manage to grab another win which seems unlikely.

The games will be of utmost value to Alliance, Mousesports and Fnatic as they will have to win the remainder of their games to enter the top 10 list. A single loss to anyone of their account, will leave that particular team clnging on to the hope that the other two don't register themselves a double victory. If either of these teams lose both games, their journey will come to an unpleasant end as they will find themselves on the bottom of the table.

The last two teams are Na'Vi.na and Empire who are at 5 wins each, but with only one game to spare. Winning their last game is absolutely necessary for both the teams, but that still does not ensure them a place into the top ten list since 9 teams already have 7 wins or more registered to their names. They need to meet to meet a specific set of results; they need to win their final game, LGD loses their last game, and the teams mouz, Fnatic and Alliance losing at least one of their two final matches.

The fate of certain teams are dependent on their own performance and that of their rivals whilst few teams must rely on others to drop down their performance alongside praying for a miracle to take place, the latter of which is highly unlikely.

For better understanding, you can refer to the virtual chart below made by reddit user VPLumbergh:

Note: By looking at the current rankings, the probability of projecting out various possibilities of different sets of ties is difficult to determine since there can be a tiebreaker all the way from a two way tiebreak to a five way tiebreak.